SWI NEWS: Saturday, February 12 2011 8 AdarI,5771
Israel's military caught unready for Sinai front. Tantawi is no friend
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 12, 2011, 10:33 AM (GMT+02:00)
Friday night, Feb. 11, as Cairo's Tahrir Square rejoiced over Hosni Mubarak exit, Israel counted the cost of losing its most important strategic partner in the region.
Thirty-two years of peace with Egypt leave Israel militarily unprepared for the unknown and unexpected on their 270-kilometer long southern border: the current generation of Israeli combatants and commanders has no experience of desert combat, its armor is tailored for operation on its most hostile fronts: Iran, Lebanon's Hizballah and Syria; it is short of intelligence on the Egyptian army and its commanders and, above all, no clue to the new rulers' intentions regarding Cairo's future relations with Israel and security on their Sinai border.
The Israeli Defense Forces are trained and equipped to confront Iran and fight on the mountainous terrain of Lebanon and Syria. After signing peace with Egypt in 1979, Israel scrapped the combat brigades trained for desert warfare, whose last battle was fought in the 1973 war, and stopped treating the Egyptian army as a target of military intelligence. Israel's high command consequently knows little or nothing about any field commanders who might lead units if they were to be deployed in Sinai.
Israel's policy-makers and military strategists are meanwhile acting on two basic assumptions:
1. Egypt's new military rulers will not be keen to lose the US $1.3 billion military aid package or their access to state of the art technology, and the Obama administration will make continued assistance conditional on upholding the peace treaty with Israel.
debkafile's military and Washington sources are not absolutely sure President Obama will lay down this condition or that, if he does, the Egyptian army will accept it. Even if the peace relations are left in place during the regime's first uncertain two or three months in Cairo, it is by no means certain they will survive thereafter.
The new rulers may be influenced by oil-rich Saudi Arabia's latest policy turn. As debkafile reported exclusively Thursday, Feb. 10, King Abdullah was so incensed by Washington's abandonment of his friend and ally Hosni Mubarak that he ordered the kingdom's diplomatic and military ties with Iran upgraded and strengthened. It is anyone's guess today whether the generals in Cairo opt for Washington or decide to patch up Mubarak's quarrel with the ayatollahs instead.
Riyadh can easily afford to make up for the loss of American aid to Egypt. Abdullah made that same offer to Mubarak if he stood fast against American pressure for his resignation, promising him a Saudi dollar for American dollar.
2. Israel is counting on Gen. Omar Suleiman - overlord of Egypt's intelligence branches and for eight days, Mubarak's Vice President - to keep faith after many years of close cooperation in safeguarding the peace relationship. Suleiman is one of the top three members of the High Army Council now ruling Egypt, alongside Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Sami Al-Anan.
debkafile: Israel may be barking up the wrong tree. When Suleiman was elevated to VP, Jerusalem hoped he would come out of the Egyptian uprising as the coming man. Friday, Mubarak's resignation left him stripped of his new title.
His footing in the top army command council is far from certain. It is to be expected that once firmly in power, the top generals will start jockeying for the top spot. Suleiman and Tantawi have long been rivals and Mubarak often stepped in to resolve their arguments, usually in the former's favor which the latter won't forget. Since Tantawi is no fan of Israel, Suleiman may decide to promote his own chances by avoiding being seen as overly pro-Israeli or pro-American. Jerusalem may therefore find a closed door when seeking him out.
This is bound to happen soon because of the chaotic free-for-all launched in Sinai while all eyes were on Cairo.
Indeed while a military coup was in progress in the Egyptian capital, Iran, Hamas and Al Qaeda's Middle East networks were fully engaged in violently reducing the Egyptian presence outside the southern Sharm el-Sheik pocket and beginning a process of annexation to the Gaza Strip starting in North Sinai. This is part of Iran's new strategy, seized on during the upsets in Cairo, to expand the Hamas state and shift the crux of Palestinian governance from Ramallah to Gaza City.
While this was going on, Hamas and Al Qaeda terrorists along with drug and human traffickers were free to infiltrate Israel, using the flow of thousands of illegal job-seekers smuggled across the lawless Sinai border.
Even the limited control Suleiman asserted over this traffic has gone.
The Netanyahu government in Jerusalem must therefore think fast and make quick decisions about Sinai. Will the military regime in Cairo take action to bring Sinai under control? Or will Israel be reduced to sending drones or special forces across the border for covert action to cut down the threats building up to its security?
Suddenly, Israel finds itself in a situation akin to the US-led forces in Afghanistan, which have in the last year stepped up their drone attacks on Taliban and al Qaeda strongholds in Waziristan, to the detriment of US relations with Pakistan.
Our military sources note that Field Marshall Tantawi has never attached much strategic importance to the Sinai Peninsula, which is why Mubarak transferred responsibility for its security from the army to Suleiman. Its reversion to the army and the field marshal would be bad news for Israel and its future relations with Egypt.
Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, head of High Army Council
Samaria Jews Appeal to PM, 'Barak is Creating Security Chaos'
by Maayana Miskin
Samaria Regional Council head Gershon Mesika has appealed to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in an effort to maintain an IDF checkpoint near Shechem that has stopped dozens of terrorist attacks. Mesika warned the prime minister that his defense minister, Ehud Barak, is “irresponsible” and that his plans will lead to disaster.
Barak's decision to dismantle the Huwara checkpoint – one of the main checkpoints in Samaria – and the nearby Beit Furik checkpoint shows “a lack of even minimal responsibility. The security chaos will lead to the deaths of soldiers and civilians on both sides of the 'green line,'” Mesika said.
Huwara was established in response to the many terrorist attacks in Israeli cities beginning in the 1990s. Over the past decade, soldiers have confiscated hundreds of guns, bombs, and other weapons at the checkpoint, and have directly prevented dozens of terrorist attacks.
As part of recent Israeli “good-will gestures” to the Palestinian Authority, the Huwara and Beit Furik checkpoint have been largely shut down. Soldiers conduct occasional random checks and respond to pinpoint threats, but otherwise do not inspect passing vehicles. Since the change in procedure, the number of weapons detected by soldiers has dropped dramatically.
The IDF is now rumored to be planning to shut down the checkpoint completely. Not only will they no longer station soldiers at the site, but also will remove the traffic island, lamp posts, the guard tower, and other infrastructure that made it possible for soldiers to inspect vehicles.
In December of 2009, terrorists murdered Rabbi Meir Chai of Shavei Shomron. The attackers, members of the PA security forces, were able to enter and exit Israeli territory with weapons in their car unhindered by security checkpoints.
In February of 2010, a PA resident murdered IDF soldier Ihab Khatib, a Druze-Israeli from Marar. The easing of restrictions allowed the armed killer to pass through the checkpoints in the Shechem region undetected.
In 2005, a 14 year old PA resident attempted to detonate a bomb vest at the Huwara checkpoint.
“We are warning you, we are crying out. Dozens of terrorists have been caught at these two checkpoints, and many dozens of bomb belts meant for Israel have been stopped,” Mesika said. “I hope this irresponsible step will not be put into effect. I call on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to intervene, and to stop the Defense Minister's irresponsible plans."
(IsraelNationalNews.com)
Concern is mounting in Israel over reports that the Egyptian police force has abandoned the Sinai Peninsula in face of growing Beduin violence, and that the territory will turn into a breeding ground for global jihad.
According to information that has arrived in Israel, Egyptian police authorities have abandoned dozens of police stations throughout the peninsula after they were attacked by Beduin armed with missiles and assault rifles.
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This concern was behind Israel’s decision two weeks ago to allow the deployment of 800 Egyptian soldiers in Sharm e-Sheikh and Rafah.
Additional requests since then have been rejected.
In recent years, the Sinai hasturned into a launching pad for attacks against Israel, including by Hamas, which several months ago launched Katyusha rockets into Eilat from the Egyptian territory.
The Egyptian military has for years encountered difficulty in controlling the Beduin population, which does not hold allegiance to the Egyptian government in Cairo.
“The Sinai is already known as a lawless land,” a senior defense official said over the weekend. “There is real concern that if the Egyptians don’t get the Sinai back under their control, it could develop into a major threat to Israel.”
Israel, which has urged all its citizens to leave the Sinai immediately, is particularly concerned about the possibility that Hamas will take hold of parts of the peninsula and use it to launch attacks into Israel via the 240-kilometer long Israeli- Egyptian border, with an emphasis on Eilat.
There is also concern that without a real Egyptian security presence in the Sinai, Hamas will be able to increase the amount and quality of weaponry and explosives it smuggles into the Gaza Strip via Egypt.
Israel has shared these concerns with its allies, as well as on a personal level between Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen.
Gabi Ashkenazi and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen.
Experts Warn: Arab Protest Buyoffs may Prolong Poverty
by Maayana Miskin
Several Arab leaders have attempted to head off the protests sweeping the Middle East by promising economic incentives such as lower fuel prices and higher salaries. Jordan, Yemen, and Syria are among the countries offering new gestures to ease their citizens' financial burden.
However, some experts are warning that the planned financial boost will ultimately damage Arab economies and prolong instability.
Mideast economist Said Hirsch told the Associated Press that the planned subsidies mean “less money for much needed economic reform programs and required investments, which is what is ultimately needed across the region.”
The subsidies are being offered because they “are needed now for short term political survival,” he explained.
In addition to the problem of fewer reforms and investments, Arab countries are expected to face a drop in tourism due to the recent protests. Tourism is a major source of income in Jordan, Egypt, and elsewhere.
Jordan in particular is facing a financial crisis, with tourism and foreign investment dropping as the country faces a record deficit and high unemployment.
(IsraelNationalNews.com)
WASHINGTON – Despite the upheaval in Egypt and a Republican push for steep cuts to foreign aid, Egypt was slated Friday to receive its traditional $1.3 billion in military assistance from the US for 2011.
The foreign aid spending bill announced Friday also provides up to $250 million in economic assistance to Egypt “with the understanding that the government will undertake significant economic and democratic reforms,” according to a statement released by Texas Republican Kay Granger, chairwoman of the House appropriations subcommittee on foreign operations.
RELATED: Obama welcomes commitments from Egypt's army Pro-Israel activists decry GOP senator's call to cut aid Under the aid bill, Israel is also to be fully funded with the $3b. in military aid it is due in 2011 under a memorandum signed by the two countries, as well as with increases to missile defense programs proposed last year, totaling $415m. Of that, $205m. will be a first-time allocation to the Iron Dome short-range missile defense program, with the balance going to the Arrow long-range system and David’s Sling medium-range project. In addition, the Palestinian Authority is set to receive $552m., despite questions from some GOP members, including House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, about the utility of that aid, and whether the current Palestinian leaders are committed to peace. Military aid to Lebanon, however, would only be approved in the event that the secretary of state determines it is “in the national interest of the United States,” according to Granger’s statement. “The spending priorities in the bill reflect the fluid and tenuous situation in the Middle East,” Granger said. “Volatility in the region highlights the importance of reaffirming our strategic partnerships and commitments. The events in the Middle East have a direct impact on the safety and security of the United States and our allies.” The assistance package covers foreign aid funding through the end of the 2011 fiscal year, since Congress did not succeed in passing a bill last session to cover the whole year. The previous Congress did, however, pass a threemonth budget, due to expire on March 4, which continued 2010 funding levels and therefore did not include the new missile defense allocations or the memorandum’s increase in Israel aid from $2.77b. to $3b. Some Democrats had expressed concern that Israel would not receive its full funding, and criticized more broadly the GOP push to cut the foreign aid budget. The high funding levels of aid to Middle Eastern countries stand in contrast to many other aspects of the foreign operations budget, which was cut by 21 percent overall – or $11.7b. – from what the White House originally requested for 2011, according to Granger’s office. Altogether, it was reduced by $3.8b. from the 2010 level to $44.9b. this year. The cuts include freezing State Department salaries, scaling back contributions to the United Nations and rescinding unspent appropriations, Granger’s office said. The new proposal must be approved by the full House as well as by the Democrat-controlled Senate before being sent for US President Barack Obama’s signature.
RELATED: Obama welcomes commitments from Egypt's army Pro-Israel activists decry GOP senator's call to cut aid Under the aid bill, Israel is also to be fully funded with the $3b. in military aid it is due in 2011 under a memorandum signed by the two countries, as well as with increases to missile defense programs proposed last year, totaling $415m. Of that, $205m. will be a first-time allocation to the Iron Dome short-range missile defense program, with the balance going to the Arrow long-range system and David’s Sling medium-range project. In addition, the Palestinian Authority is set to receive $552m., despite questions from some GOP members, including House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, about the utility of that aid, and whether the current Palestinian leaders are committed to peace. Military aid to Lebanon, however, would only be approved in the event that the secretary of state determines it is “in the national interest of the United States,” according to Granger’s statement. “The spending priorities in the bill reflect the fluid and tenuous situation in the Middle East,” Granger said. “Volatility in the region highlights the importance of reaffirming our strategic partnerships and commitments. The events in the Middle East have a direct impact on the safety and security of the United States and our allies.” The assistance package covers foreign aid funding through the end of the 2011 fiscal year, since Congress did not succeed in passing a bill last session to cover the whole year. The previous Congress did, however, pass a threemonth budget, due to expire on March 4, which continued 2010 funding levels and therefore did not include the new missile defense allocations or the memorandum’s increase in Israel aid from $2.77b. to $3b. Some Democrats had expressed concern that Israel would not receive its full funding, and criticized more broadly the GOP push to cut the foreign aid budget. The high funding levels of aid to Middle Eastern countries stand in contrast to many other aspects of the foreign operations budget, which was cut by 21 percent overall – or $11.7b. – from what the White House originally requested for 2011, according to Granger’s office. Altogether, it was reduced by $3.8b. from the 2010 level to $44.9b. this year. The cuts include freezing State Department salaries, scaling back contributions to the United Nations and rescinding unspent appropriations, Granger’s office said. The new proposal must be approved by the full House as well as by the Democrat-controlled Senate before being sent for US President Barack Obama’s signature.
